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《財富》調查:三分之二的美國人預計2020年美國經濟將陷入衰退

Lance Lambert 2019年11月28日午饭福利视频合集40

大多數人預測美國經濟在2020年將陷入衰退,這個日漸濃厚的悲觀主義則是經濟觀察家們需要關注的事情。

午饭福利视频合集40只要作為美國經濟命脈的美國消費者繼續慷慨解囊,有關經濟衰退的預測便可能無法成為現實。畢竟,一杯5美元的咖啡可能算不上奢侈。

然而,這意味著我們應該密切關注美國人的花銷習慣及其個人財務前景,尤其是在制造業不斷萎縮的這個時代。這也是為什么《財富》雜志和SurveyMonkey攜手開展此次調查的原因,其受調對象超過了1萬名美國民眾。

你應該了解的數字:

88%

午饭福利视频合集40· 88%的美國人稱其開支水平較12個月前有所上升(29%)或持平(59%)。同時,僅有10%的受調對象出現了同比開支預算負增長。

66%

· 66%的美國人認為美國經濟將在未來12個月內陷入衰退。

45%

· 45%的共和黨人認為美國經濟將在12個月內進入衰退,而民主黨的比例為84%。

大環境分析:

美國人依然在毫不吝嗇地購買新面世的產品和高價物品,然而,他們對經濟的展望出現了大幅下滑,而且大多數人預測美國經濟在2020年將陷入衰退。這個日漸濃厚的悲觀主義則是經濟觀察家們需要關注的事情。

午饭福利视频合集40穆迪分析的消費者經濟研究業務負責人斯考特·霍伊特稱:“如果不是消費支出的話,美國經濟早已進入了衰退……消費支出對經濟增長的貢獻比例過半,但其他經濟領域都在萎縮。”

美國經濟分析局稱,第三季度,美國GDP增速降至1.9%,像出口這樣的重點領域下滑了5.7%,私人投資下降了1.5%。然而,消費支出增長了2.9%,其中,商品購買開支出現了5.5%的大幅增長。

三大重要特征:

1. 消費開支全面增長

As long as American consumers—the lifeblood of the economy—keep spending away, recession speculation is unlikely to turn into reality. Maybe you shouldn’t feel guilty for that $5 coffee after all?

But this means we should keep a close eye on Americans spending habits and their personal economic outlook, especially when considering manufacturing is contracting. That’s why Fortune and SurveyMonkey teamed up to conduct a poll of more than 10,000 Americans.*

The big numbers you should know:

88%

· ... Americans say their spending levels are either up (29%) or flat (59%) compared to 12 months ago. While only 1 in 10 respondents have cut their spending budget year-over-year.

66%

· ... Americans think a recession will occur over the coming 12 months.

45%

· ... of Republicans think a recession will occur over the coming 12 months, compared to 84% of Democrats.

Big picture takeaway:

Americans are still throwing down money for the latest gadgets and buying big ticket items, however, their outlook of the economy is souring with the majority foreseeing a 2020 recession. And that growing pessimism is something economic onlookers need to watch.

午饭福利视频合集40“If not for consumer spending, we’d be in a recession... Consumer spending accounts for more than all of the growth in the economy. The rest of the economy is contracting,” says Scott Hoyt, head of consumer economic research at Moody’s Analytics.

午饭福利视频合集40In the third quarter, U.S. gross domestic product growth slowed to 1.9%, with key components like exports falling 5.7% and private investment down 1.5%. Yet consumer spending rose 2.9%, including a 5.5% jump in spending on goods, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Three deep takeaways:

1. Spending is up across the board

無論在哪一個人口類目——種族、收入或地區,家庭開支更多地呈現出了增長而不是降低的趨勢。盡管這個數字十分強勁,但我們不能高估其重要性:消費支出占GDP的比重從50年前的59.5%增至今年第三季度的68.1%。

來自于農業人口的反饋的確揭示了一些令人擔憂的顧慮,有18%的人表示其家庭開支較一年前有所減少,這個數字在我們調查的29個行業中居于首位。可能從事農業的工人正在遭受中美貿易爭端所帶來的沖擊。

2. 對生活必需品的需求高于奢侈品

Among every demographic—whether it’s race, income, or region—households are more likely to be growing their spending levels than cutting back. And the importance of strong spending figures cannot be overstated: Over the past 50 years, consumer spending has risen from 59.5% of GDP to 68.1% in the latest quarter.

午饭福利视频合集40Some concerning responses did come from Americans who work in the agriculture industry, with 18% saying their household spending is lower now than a year ago—that’s the highest figure among the 29 industries we looked at. Perhaps workers in the agriculture business are feeling the impacts of the U.S.-China trade war.

2. Necessities over luxuries

午饭福利视频合集40實際上,在削減家庭開支的少數家庭(10%)會優先削減娛樂消費。這是很正常的:如果出現預算不足的現象,人們很有可能在削減必需品購買開支之前放棄購買流媒體服務或減少周末旅行。

3. 黨派分歧

The minority of households (10%) who are actually cutting household spending, are targeting entertainment expenses first. That makes sense: if you have a budget gap you’d likely drop a streaming service or scale back weekend getaways before cutting necessities.

3. The partisan divide

對美國的經濟展望出現了以黨派為界限的分歧。約80%的民主黨/民主黨傾向選民認為經濟衰退將在未來12個月中到來。與此同時,略超過半數的共和黨/共和黨傾向選民則認為不大可能出現經濟衰退。

午饭福利视频合集40然而,以下一組數字可能會讓這些展望出現反轉:民主黨家庭和共和黨家庭的開支分別增加了33%和24%。人們是否是在按照自己的政治傾向來推測經濟走勢呢?經濟問題必然是總統選舉年的中心議題,因此很明顯,經濟下行對于現任總統來說是個壞消息,而對于挑戰者來說則十分有利。

一個有意思的數字:

35%

· 35%的美國人稱他們已經調整了其財務開支,以迎接經濟下行的到來。(財富中文網)

*調查方法:《財富》與SurveyMonkey的調查涉及全美10,372個成年人樣本。該調查的建模誤差估值為±3%。這些發現已經根據年齡、種族、性別、教育和地域進行了加權處理。

譯者:馮豐

審校:夏林

Americans’ economic outlooks are dividend along partisan lines. Around 8 in 10 Democrats/Democratic-leaning voters think a recession is coming in the next 12 months. Meanwhile, a slight majority of Republican/Republican-leaning voters think a recession is unlikely.

午饭福利视频合集40One might assume those outlooks would be flipped when considering spending rose in 33% of Democratic households versus 24% in GOP households. So are people viewing the economic outlook with a personal politics lens? The economy is front and center during presidential election years, so obviously a downturn would be bad for an incumbent president and helpful for a challenger.

One interesting number:

35%

午饭福利视频合集40· ... of Americans say they’ve made changes to their finances to prepare for a downturn.

*Methodology: The Fortune-SurveyMonkey poll was conducted among a national sample of 10,372 adults in the U.S. This survey’s modeled error estimate is plus or minus 3 percentage points. The findings have been weighted for age, race, sex, education, and geography.

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